Thanksgiving Nymex Globex Holiday Schedule: Regular open Wednesday at 5:00pm CT with a 12:00pm CT halt on Thursday Nov 25. Trade will reopen Thursday at 5:00pm CT with an early close at 12:45 CT on Friday Nov 26.
Outlook: The market looks forward to eventual clarity on what consuming nations will do with Strategic Petroleum Reserve's and in turn what OPEC+ would do in reaction. This uncertainty given the energy complex pause in recent weeks with the overall trend lower, despite a supportive fundamental backdrop.
Crude
- OPEC+ delegates said the group may adjust plans if oil stocks are released.
- India has not yet decided on timing and volume of releasing SPR crude oil, according to government officials and those with knowledge, Bloomberg reports.
- Fly-over data showed Cushing, OK crude oil inventories rose 344,000 barrels from Friday No 12 to Friday Nov 19.
- The median price for existing US homes in October 2021 was $353,900, up 13.1% from October 2020. Inventory of homes for sale was 1.25 million units, 2.4 months worth of supply.
- President Biden nominated current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for a second term. The dollar rose and gold fell on the news while crude oil seemed relatively unaffected.
- Parkland Fuels reduced crude runs at its Barnaby, Vancouver refinery due to rail delivery disruptions related to recent flooding events that has constrained rail operations in the region.
- OPEC Secretary General Barkindo recently said OPEC+ “will keep our hands firmly on the steering wheel.”
- US oil rig counts are up 7 w/w, 18 m/m and 230 y/y.
- Non-commercial’s trading WTI futures and options reduced length by 37,016 lots to a net long 461,274 contracts in the week ended November 16.
- As of 10:10 am CST: Brent crude oil up $0.96 at $79.85, US dollar index up 0.360 to 96.391 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is up 33.00 points to 4,727.50.
Diesel
- Nearby ULSD is up more than 3.5 cents this morning with current trade at 2.3300, well above its early low of 2.2632.
- Crack spreads are finding strength with the January HO crack up 66 cents to 20.79.
- The TSA screened 2.24 million passengers on Friday, the highest sine the pandemic began.
Gasoline
- RBOB is leading the energy complex higher as tight supplies are viewed with current trade up nearly 5 cents to 2.2591.
- Crack spreads are finding strength today with the January RBOB crack up $1.12 to $15.77.
- European exports of gasoline to the US have been subdued as arbs remain unappealing compared to shipments to West Africa. This comes even as gasoline inventories remain stubbornly low along the East Coast.
- Covid restrictions in Germany, Austria, Australia and elsewhere have brought concern about the economic outlook and oil demand.
Propane
- End users were seen as becoming more active buyers on Friday in taking advantage of propane’s strong decline in recent weeks. Nearby Conway propane is trading near 1.1500, which is down from above 1.5000 in early October.
Natural Gas
- Natural gas is tangibly lower amid warmer weather forecasts. Nearby natural gas futures trade at 4.803, down 26.2 cents on the day as updated weather models lose near 15 HDD’s from the 15-day forecast. Current trade is off the low however and has so far recovered above the critical support point of the 100-day moving average at 4.722.
Crude oil held on tankers for at least seven days in floating storage stand at 94.892 million barrels, Vortexa shows.
