Outlook: Energies and equities are rebounding this morning and have moved well above yesterday’s mid-morning lows. Crude is up nearly two dollars, retesting its 200-day moving average. President Biden announced he will send 500 million free home testing kits starting next month which could lead to an increase in testing and an uptick in overall cases. The president will also address the media this afternoon to outline steps to fend off Omicron. This afternoon and industry group will provide their estimates on last week’s crude and products supply shifts and tomorrow morning brings the official stats from the EIA. Last week the EIA reported a plunge of more than we saw a plunge in overall US petroleum inventories of nearly 18 million barrels.
Crude
- Libya’s exports are down and force majeure has been declared after a a militia shut down a 300,000 bpd oilfield in front of upcoming elections.
- U.S. December Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index fell to 28.3 down from 46.1.
- It’s reported that Biden spoke to Senator Manchin on Sunday and left the door open to revive talks on the BBB spending plan.
- Global oil and natural gas discoveries are heading for the lowest level in 75 years according to Rystad Energy.
- Omicron accounted for 73% of new infections in the U.S. last week.
- There were 646 school closings in the U.S. related to covid on Monday, up from 356 closing for the entirety of last week.
- London hospitilizations were up 34% compared to last week.
- Combined net longs for Brent and WTI have declined nearly 40% since October.
- A Reuters poll suggests upcoming inventory reports could show US crude stocks fell 2.6 million barrels last week. It suggests distillate stocks rose 200,000 barrels and gasoline stocks rose 1.1 million barrels.
- As of 10:06 am CST: Brent crude oil up $1.65 to $73.18, US dollar index up 0.078 to 96.629 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is up 34.00 points to 4592.50.
Diesel
- Nearby ULSD is up 6.3 cents to 2.2360, rebounding from yesterday’s low of 2.1085.
Gasoline
- Nearby RBOB is up 4.4 cents at 2.1355, well above yesterday’s low print of 2.0245.
- Vortexa estimates have U.S. gasoline demand remains strong while exports out of the Gulf Coast totaled at 1 million bpd for the first 20 days of December, the highest for this month in three years.
- Last week U.S. gasoline demand rose 9.14 million bpd for the four-week average, according to the most recent EIA data, the highest level for this time of year since 2015.
Propane
- This winter has seen 21% fewer HDD than normal and 9% fewer than last year.
- Propane is higher this morning following crude.
Natural Gas
- Total U.S. gas demand fell by 1.8 Bcf/d to 95.8 Bcf/d yesterday after 3 consectutive days of gains.
- Roughly 30% of France’s nuclear capacity will be offline at the beginning of January with Germany also scheduled to close 50% of it’s reactors prior to year-end.
November 2022 ULSD Futures, Seasonal: The blue line is the November 2022 ULSD futures contract compared to the 5-year high/low/average.
