Outlook: Energies are taking a breather today after last week’s rally that pushed oil to 7-year highs. The key market driver this morning is optimism over the US and Iran concluding talks that would bring Iranian supply back to the market. This progress has likely been expedited as the US sees pressure to relieve gas prices that continue to soar following the crude rally. The deal will need to come to conclusion before significant relief is realized, as there are still many bullish market drivers looming. Multiple meetings are taking place today to assess the Russia/Ukraine conflict while the threat of invasion continues to support the market.
Crude
- There are reports that the US and Iran are set to conclude talks that could bring Iranian oil back to the market in an effort to relieve prices according to Bloomberg.
- Saudi Arabia increased their March official selling price for customers in Asia by 60 cents.
- Libya’s export terminals have reopened following bad weather.
- A cyber-attack on European oil distribution terminals has rendered them unable to process tankers and unload oil barges.
- President Biden will meet with Chancellor Scholz of Germany to discuss Russia/Ukraine.
- French President Macron is meeting with President Putin today in an effort to mediate the situation.
- Weekly floating storage increased by 7.9% week-over-week.
- Daily average Covid-19 cases were down by 11% globally.
- Baker Hughes reported oil rigs increased by 2 to a total of 497.
- As of 9:24 am CST: Brent crude oil down $0.60 to $92.71, US dollar index down $.027 to 95.459 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is down .025 to 4491.75.
Diesel
- Marathon Petroleum Corp shut down unexpectedly on Monday with no confirmation of a restart.
- Valero Energy Corp restarted limited production as of Saturday.
- Global jet fuel demand fell by 53,800 bpd week-on-week according to BNEF.
- Draws on diesel inventories continue to support pricing.
- Apple’s global driving activity index increased by 2.9%
- Google’s mobility index rose by 1.6%
Propane
- Conway is down 1.75 cents to $1.2725 and Belvieu is unchanged at $1.28.
Natural Gas
- Overnight weather runs decreased by 19 HDDs through the two-week forecast.
- Total US demand fell by 9.3 Bcf/d between Friday and Sunday.
- Baker Hughes reported an increase of 1 for natural gas rigs.
Continuous Natural Gas: Natural gas continues to see high volatility as we enter the home stretch of winter. Warmer weather forecasts have allowed prices to fall over a dollar from their highs to start February. The power grid appeared to be unaffected by the recent cold snap that crossed parts of Texas
