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Outlook: Energies are trading higher this morning following the largest single-day sell-off of the year yesterday. Markets are still extremely sensitive towards news coming from the Russia and Ukrainian border. NATO has claimed that Russia is continuing to increase the number of troops at the border as opposed to pulling any back. President Biden is set to speak with Germany’s Scholz this afternoon and will likely cover the discussions Scholz had with Putin the prior day. Underlying support is still coming from continued draws in inventories and struggling production from OPEC+.     

Crude

• There are conflicting stories about whether Russia is pulling troops from the border or not.
• Iran talks have slowed some as Iran officials are blaming western powers for being unreasonable. Talks will continue at the Munich security meeting.
• French foreign minister claims there are only days to salvage nuclear talks with Iran.
• European crude flows stayed above 1 million bpd for the 5^th straight month as the continent continues to deal with its energy crisis.
• OPEC president stated that there is no easy and quick fix to solving the production problems. Facing the oil-producing alliance as maintenance and updates have fallen behind.
• API projects a draw of crude 1.1 million barrels overall and 2.38 million in Cushing.
• Reuters is calling for a crude draw of 1.6 million barrels.
• EIA will release inventories report today at 9:30
• As of 8:45 am CST: Brent crude oil up $1.75 to $95.02, US dollar index down $.115 to 95.874 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is down 20 points to 4443.50.

Diesel

• The API estimated a 546,000 barrel draw.
• Reuters is calling for a 1.5 million barrel draw.
• Jet fuel demand is staying strong providing support to the market.
  

Gasoline

• The API estimated a 923,000 barrel draw in today’s EIA report.
• Reuters is calling for a 600,000 barrel build.
• Nigeria announced that they will be importing 1.7 million tons of emergency gasoline. This puts more strain on an already very tight market.

Propane

• Propane inventories are expected to fall 3 million bbl
• Propane fell over 3 cents yesterday following weakness in WTI.
  

Natural Gas

• Futures are up nearly 30 cents this morning as overnight weather added 23 HDDs to the forecast.
• Nearby prices have risen 60 cents this week
• US demand decreased by 11 bcf/d to 98.4 bcf/d

Supply from Individual OPEC+ nations: We continue to see OPEC+ struggle to reach their estimated production goals and several of the largest producers including Saudi Arabia and Russia are lagging behind their production commitments.