Outlook: Energies are off to another slow start today with a lack of market-moving headlines. The US and EU announced another round of financial sanctions against Russia. The EU once again did not target energies, but they do plan to phase out coal imports. With the markets trading higher today despite the EU leaving energy out of sanctions, it appears there’s little faith that a European energy embargo is likely short-term. Traders also are keying in on analysts’ predictions of a 5 million bpd global deficit due to the war and the headline effect of SPR releases has been short-lived. The IEA and US gasoline consulting services are projecting a reduction in US gas demand because of sustained elevated prices. Demand has been resilient thus far, but a bullish outlook may slowly persuade consumers to seek alternatives.
Crude
- The EU decided not to sanction oil and gas in this week’s round of sanctions against Russia.
- The EU intends to phase out Russian coal imports.
- The US has stopped Russian bond payments to add additional pressure to their economy.
- India purchased 1 million barrels of Russian Urals yesterday.
- The General Secretary of NATO announced supporting war crimes probes in Ukraine.
- Reuters estimates crude inventories fell by 3 million barrels last week.
- The API will report their inventory survey at 3:30 CST.
- As of 8:58 am CST: Brent crude oil up $1.09 to $108.62, US dollar index down $0.151 to 98.851 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is up 2.00 to 4579.00.
Diesel
- Bloomberg Automation reports US average retail diesel prices fell 0.8% last week to $5.144.
- Reuters estimates diesel inventories fell by 1.1 million barrels last week.
Gasoline
- Bloomberg Automation reports US average retail gas prices fell 1.4% last week to $4.021.
- Reuters estimates gasoline inventories fell by 300,000 barrels last week.
Propane
- Conway is trading at $1.3100 and Belvieu is trading at $1.3400, off 2 cents to start the day.
- 45.2% of propane production is exported as of 3/30.
Natural Gas
- Total US demand fell by 0.6 Bcf/d yesterday to 93.6 Bcf/d.
- Overnight weather runs added 9 HDDs from the two-week forecast.
- The EIA estimates a draw between 19-44 Bcf for last week.
- LNG in floating storage declined by 41% last week.
Daily NG: Natural gas has seen a late-season rally as cooler temps continue to linger around. Drawdowns on inventories during periods where builds are anticipated can have an elevated effect on prices. Nearly NG is up over 30 cents today.
