Outlook: Energies are trading higher across the board this morning. WTI has traded back to its highest level since early December eclipsing $78 so far this morning. Further delays for the Keystone pipeline have provided support for crude this week. Additional support is coming from early reporting that Russian oil exports are down 11% in December following the latest round of sanctions which included an embargo and price cap. Fundamental data will be released by the EIA this morning at 9:30 CT. Trade estimates are calling for a draw in crude between 1.7 - 3 million barrels and products are expected to rise. A major winter storm is pushing through the Midwest through the end of the week. Heating demand is expected to climb with the frigid temps while travel demand will also be impacted by blizzard conditions.
Crude
- TC Energy delayed its restart plan for the Keystone Pipeline to December 28th due to cold weather hindering the clean-up process.
- Yesterday, Saudi Oil Minister bin Salman advised that OPEC+ will remain proactive and pre-emptive concerning changes across the oil markets.
- Russian oil exports have fallen by 11% so far in December according to Kommersant daily.
- Reuters estimates crude inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels last week.
- Crude stocks fell by 3 million barrels last week according to sources citing the API.
- The EIA will report inventories at 9:30 CT.
- As of 8:22 am CST: Brent crude oil up $1.76 to $81.75, US dollar index up $0.173 to 104.138 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is up 29.25 to 3978.00.
Diesel
- Reuters estimates diesel stocks rose by 300,000 gallons last week.
- Diesel inventories rose by 800,000 barrels last week according to sources citing the API.
Gasoline
- Reuters estimates gasoline inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels last week.
- Gasoline inventories rose 4.5 million barrels last week according to sources citing the API.
Propane
- Conway is trading at .6850 while Belvieu is trading at .6525.
- Conway is trading at 38% of crude.
- The US is exporting 58% of production as of 12/9/22.
- OPIS estimates propane inventories fell by 602,000 barrels last week.
Natural Gas
- Total US gas demand fell to 131.5 Bcf/d.
- Total US dry production fell to 96.9 Bcf/d.
- Overnight weather runs added 7 HDDs through the two-week forecast.
Continuous Daily WTI: WTI is continuing its weekly run trading above its 9-day moving average to maintain momentum. The now prompt February contract could look to test $80 by week’s end if the upside move persists.
