Outlook: Energies are mixed to start the day off with WTI staying glued near $80. The market can’t seem to find firm direction after gapping higher last week following the OPEC+ production cut. Economic and fundamental reports will start to come out today and continue through the end of the week which could provide the market with some additional clarity. The EIA STEO will be released this morning with some speculating it may reflect a tightening gasoline scenario as we approach driving season. Reuters is estimating that gasoline stocks fell by 1.5 million barrels last week and stocks currently sit 12.2 million barrels below 5-year seasonal average levels. The EIA will confirm inventories tomorrow morning shortly after US inflation data is released.
Crude
- China’s consumer inflation data in March rose at its slowest pace since September 2021, which could suggest persistent demand weakness despite economic recovery.
- Flows from Russian ports dropped by 1.24 mbpd last week and took them below 3 mbpd for the first time in eight weeks.
- Reuters estimates US crude stocks fell by 1.3 million barrels last week.
- The API will report its inventory survey this afternoon at 3:30 CT.
- The EIA’s short-term energy outlook will be released this morning.
- The US will report March inflation data through the CPI report tomorrow morning at 7:30 CT
- As of 8:10 am CST: Brent crude oil down $0.07 to $84.11, US dollar index up $0.043 to 102.135 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is up 2.25 to 4139.00.
Diesel
- India’s fuel consumption rose 5% from year-ago levels to 4.83 mbpd, which is the highest level since data began being recorded in 1998.
- India’s March diesel sales were up 11.4% m/m.
- Global passenger jet fuel demand is set to fall to 6.04 mbpd this week, marking the first weekly downturn in 10 weeks, according to Bloomberg data.
- Reuters estimates diesel stocks fell by 800,000 barrels last week.
Gasoline
- India’s March gasoline sales were up 6.8% m/m.
- Reuters estimates gasoline stocks fell by 1.5 million barrels last week.
Propane
- Conway is trading at .8050 while Belvieu is trading at .8150.
- Conway is trading at 42% of crude.
- The US is exporting 54% of production as of 3/31/23.
- Oct-Mar strip propane swaps were offered around .8875 yesterday. Please reach out for updated values.
Natural Gas
- Overnight weather runs added 1 TDDs through the two-week forecast.
- Yesterday, US natural gas demand fell to 97.3 Bcf/d.
OPEC+: OPEC struck fear for those that have recently shorted the oil market. Hedge funds that took such a position were largely flushed out with a 46% decline in short positions following the group’s production cut announcement.
