Outlook: The energy market is off to another slow start this morning with a lack of fresh headlines to provide direction. Traders have likely exhausted price action with the Israel/Hamas war but volatility could quickly be reignited if the delayed ground invasion comes to fruition. Energies may remain quiet until we see the EIA inventory report later this morning. The API survey yesterday afternoon showed draws across the board which may provide bullish momentum if the right variables are the cause. Demand will continue to be one of the most closely monitored categories with the economy in a fragile state. Eurozone economic data shifted on a worse trajectory last month while the US economy is still resisting significant contractions. Fed fund futures suggest that interest rates will remain steady through the end of the year.
Crude
- World leaders are calling for a ceasefire to provide aid to Gaza as 5,700 deaths have been reported.
- Physical crude markets are being pressured by lower refining margins and higher tanker rates.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak today at 3:30 CT.
- Reuters estimates crude stocks rose by 200,000 barrels last week.
- The API survey showed crude stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels last week.
- The EIA will report inventories at 9:30 CT.
- As of 8:21 am CST: Brent crude oil up $0.05 to $88.12, US dollar index up $0.117 to 106.383 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is down 15.25 to 4256.00.
Diesel
- Group 3 diesel basis levels have normalized after a sharp selloff early this week.
- The API survey showed diesel stocks fell by 2.3 million barrels last week.
- Reuters estimates diesel stocks fell 1.2 million barrels last week.
Gasoline
- The API survey showed gasoline stocks fell by 4.2 million barrels last week.
- Reuters estimates gasoline stocks fell 900,000 barrels last week.
Propane
- Conway is trading at .6350 while Belvieu is trading at .6525.
- Conway Swap Oct24-Mar25 trading ~.7400.
- Spot Conway is trading at 33% of WTI.
- The US is exporting 43% of production as of 10/13/23.
Natural Gas
- Overnight weather runs added 3 HDDs through the two-week forecast.
- US weather models have shifted colder for three consecutive days. The end of Oct through early Nov is expected to be colder than the 10-year average.
- Reuters estimates US natural gas stocks rose around 80 Bcf last week.
- Finnish police have reported that the rupture of a bas pipe in the Baltic was caused by an anchor being dragged on the seabed.
US Dollar Index: The US dollar is looking to defend its bullish trend after a sharp recovery yesterday. A higher dollar can be bearish for dollar-based commodities.
