Energy markets will be closed during the day on Thursday, November 23rd in observance of Thanksgiving. The market will reopen Thursday night at 5:00 pm CT and will close early at 12:45 pm CT on Friday, November 24th. Our desk will be staffed Friday morning.
Outlook: Energies have fallen under pressure this morning after a flurry of back-and-forth headlines regarding the OPEC+ meeting. Now that the dust has settled, it appears the meeting has officially been delayed from November 26th to November 30th. Bloomberg was reporting that Saudi Arabia has expressed dissatisfaction with other member of OPEC and their output numbers. Saudi Arabia is expected to continue its 1 million bpd voluntary cut for the first part of 2024, which is separate from other OPEC member quotas. There could be more headlines to come from this that could impact the market and is something to keep an eye out for, especially on a holiday week with thin liquidity. The EIA report could get some traction today after the API revealed a bearish survey yesterday afternoon. The API reported a 9.1 million barrel build in crude stocks, if the DOE confirms something close to this, additional downward pressure may be seen. Both Brent and WTI oil benchmarks have fallen for four straight weeks.
Crude
- OPEC+ has delayed its policy meeting from November 26th to November 30th over rumored disagreements on production, per Bloomberg.
- CME OPEC+ watch tool shows a 48% chance cuts will remain steady and a 40% chance cuts will decrease. This is a significant shift from earlier in the week.
- Reuters estimates crude stocks rose by 1.2 million barrels last week.
- The API survey showed crude stocks rose 9.1 million barrels last week.
- The EIA will report inventories at 9:30 am CT.
- As of 7:46 am CST: Brent crude oil down $3.09 to $79.36, US dollar index up $0.187 to 103.750 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is up 13.25 to 4564.00.
Diesel
- Reuters estimates diesel stocks fell by 800,000 barrels last week.
- The API survey showed diesel stocks rose by 3.5 million barrels last week.
Gasoline
- Reuters estimates gasoline stocks fell by 200,000 barrels last week.
- The API survey showed gasoline stocks fell by 1.8 million barrels last week.
Propane
- Conway is trading at .6300 while Belvieu is trading at .6500.
- Conway Swap Oct24-Mar25 strip trading ~.7200.
- Spot Conway is trading at 34% of WTI.
- OPIS estimates propane stocks fell by 920,000 barrels last week.
Natural Gas
- Overnight weather runs added 5 HDDs through the two-week forecast.
- Reuters estimates natural gas stocks rose between 4 and 31 Bcf last week.
- Dutch TTF prices fell to a 6-week low yesterday as stocks sit 99% full.
Continuous Daily WTI: WTI has seen 4 consecutive weeks of declines and is finding heavy pressure from a delayed OPEC+ meeting today.
