Outlook: Energy markets are struggling to find direction this morning with back-and-forth trade near unchanged. Market-moving headlines are few and far between this week and even significant shifts in Russia’s weekly oil exports are finding a muted response. Oil loading from Russia’s western ports is expected to decline 23% m/m as refinery runs begin to recover with western port exports expected to drop to 1.5 mbpd. Shaky compliance from Russia and their pledged OPEC+ cuts leaves the market leery on whether these levels will be sustained. US fundamentals may gain a little more traction this week if the outside environment remains quiet. Reuters has projected crude stocks fell by 3 million barrels last week which may provide support prices if confirmed. The market has built in demand growth for a price driver recently and any disappointments there will be a downside risk. The API will release its inventory survey this afternoon which has largely not aligned with Reuters polling as of late.
Crude
- Russia’s weekly crude exports fell by the most in 3 months last week driven by maintenance at several key ports. Exports fell 660,000 bpd to 3.04 mbpd. (BBG)
- India’s state-run oil refiners are looking to lock in a deal with Russia to secure 26 to 30 cargoes of Urals through March at a fixed $5 discount. Russia is offering the deal at $3. (BBG)
- Reuters estimates crude stocks fell 3 million barrels last week.
- The API will report its inventory survey today at 3:30 pm CT.
- US Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, will be reported on Friday this week.
- As of 8:48 am CST: Brent crude oil down $0.44 to $85.57, US dollar index up $0.193 to 105.666 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is up 7.25 to 5524.00.
Diesel
- Reuters estimates diesel stocks rose by 400,000 barrels last week.
- The prompt diesel crack has risen over $2 since the start of June.
- LTD for July HO is 6/28, please be out of positions by EOD 6/27.
Gasoline
- Reuters estimates gasoline stocks fell 1.1 million barrels last week.
- Money managers cut their bullish Nymex gasoline bets to an 8-month low last week per the delayed COT report released yesterday.
- LTD for July RBOB is 6/28, please be out of positions by EOD 6/27.
Propane
- Conway is trading at .7575 while Belvieu is trading at .7900.
- Conway Swap Oct24-Mar25 strip indicative midpoint ~.8150.
- Conway propane is trading at 39% to WTI.
Natural Gas
- Overnight weather runs removed 1 CDDs for the two-week forecast.
- The July natural gas contract will expire tomorrow.
- Reuters estimates nat gas stocks rose between 32 and 55 Bcf
Russian Crude Exports:
