Outlook: Energies are falling again this morning with crude off ~60 cents and products off ~3 cents. Geopolitical risk has sprinted out of the market over the last two sessions despite reports of declining production in Libya. Anticipation of OPEC unwinding production cuts and increasing in Russian oil flows are opposing fundamentals. With demand lacking in multiple major economies, fear of the market quickly tightening remains absent despite large potential disruptions in the headlines. The bearish bias looks to be fully intact and lower prices may be observed short-term. The API survey released yesterday afternoon was bullish with draws reported across the board which also tracked similarly to the Reuters poll. The EIA will release its data later this morning but it may take a significant surprise to flip the trend.
Crude
- OPEC+ is scheduled to add 543,000 bpd of oil production in Q4. (BBG)
- Libya has cut oil output by 400,000 bpd since their announcement to completely halt production earlier this week. (BBG)
- Russia’s seaborne oil flows rose to their highest level in two months at 3.26 mbpd last week.
- TotalEnergies SE, a French oil major, was fined $48 million by the CFTC over allegations that the firm attempted to manipulate gasoline markets. (BBG)
- Reuters estimates crude stocks fell 2.3 million barrels.
- The API survey showed crude stocks fell 3.4 million barrels.
- The EIA will report inventories at 9:30 am CT.
- As of 7:55 am CST: Brent crude oil down $0.99 to $78.56, US dollar index up $0.591 to 100.143 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is down 3.25 to 5641.00.
Diesel
- Reuters estimates diesel stocks fell 1.1 million barrels last week.
- The API survey showed diesel stocks fell 1.4 million barrels last week.
- LTD for September HO is Friday 8/30. Please be out of positions by EOD 8/29.
Gasoline
- The Nymex gasoline crack fell to its lowest level since November on Tuesday.
- Reuters estimates gasoline stocks fell 1.6 million barrels last week.
- The API survey showed gasoline stocks fell 1.9 million barrels last week.
- LTD for September RBOB is Friday 8/30. Please be out of positions by EOD 8/29.
Propane
- Conway is trading at .7475 while Belvieu is trading at .7575.
- Conway Swap Oct24-Mar25 strip indicative midpoint ~.7975.
- Conway Swap Oct24 indicative midpoint ~.7750
- Conway propane is trading at 42% to WTI.
- OPIS estimates propane stocks rose 1.53 million barrels last week.
Natural Gas
- Overnight weather runs removed 1 CDDs for the two-week forecast.
- US natural gas stocks are expected to end the injection season at four-year highs near 3.902 trillion cubic feet on Oct 31st. (Reuters)
- Inventories through the heating season are expected to fall to 1.741 tcf, lowest in 3-years. (Reuters)
- Reuters estimates nat gas stocks rose between 33-55 Bcf last week.
- LTD for September NG is 8/28. Please be out of positions by EOD 8/27.
Continuous Daily RBOB Crack:
