Outlook: Energies prices are falling this morning following reports that a ceasefire deal has been agreed upon between Israel and Lebanon. The Israeli security cabinet is expected to approve the deal on Tuesday, according to an AXIOS report citing US Senior Officials. The selloff following the report has been somewhat contained while the Russia and Ukraine conflict acts to hold risk premium. Just last night the Ukrainian military said they struck an oil depot in Russia’s western Kaluga region. President-Elect Donald Trump nominated Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary over the weekend. Bessent advised a 3-3-3 economic policy which includes cutting the budget deficit by 3% of GDP, pursuing GDP growth of 3%, and increasing US oil production by 3 mbpd. The US dollar is off over 900 points this morning while equities have found support. Look for further policy chatter and geopolitical developments to be the driver this week before trade thins ahead of the holiday.
Crude
- Israel and Lebanon have agreed to the terms of a ceasefire deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. (AXIOS)
- Iran is scheduled to hold nuclear talks with three European powers on November 29th. (Reuters)
- India’s crude imports in October rose 3.9% m/m with Russian oil accounting for 40% of the total. (Reuters)
- China’s crude imports are expected to rebound to over 10 mbpd in November, which would be highest since 2023. (Reuters)
- OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on December 1st and the meeting is expected to be held virtually.
- Baker Hughes reported US rig counts fell by 1 to 479 last week.
- The FOMC minutes are scheduled for release at 1:00pm CT tomorrow.
- Q3 GDP and October PCE will be reported on Wednesday.
- As of 8:05 am CST: Brent crude oil down $0.48 to $73.75, US dollar index up $0.445 to 107.417 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is down 3.25 to 5967.00.
Diesel
- India’s October refinery throughput rose 3% y/y to 5 mbpd.
- Managed money decreased Nymex heating oil net length by 4.2k through last Tuesday.
- Friday is LTD for Dec HO. Please be out of positions by EOD Wednesday.
Gasoline
- Managed money increased Nymex gasoline net length by 7.3k lots through last Tuesday.
- Friday is LTD for Dec RBOB. Please be out of positions by EOD Wednesday.
Propane
- Conway futures are trading at .7575 while Belvieu is trading at .8325.
- Conway Swap Oct25-Mar26 strip indicative midpoint ~.7525.
- Conway propane is trading at 44% to WTI.
Natural Gas
- Weekend weather runs removed 6 HDDs to the two week forecast.
- Managed money increased net length by 14.8k lots through Tuesday last week.
- Baker Hughes reported nat gas rigs fell by 2 to 99 last week.
Continuous Daily WTI:
