NYMEX markets will halt at 1:30 pm CT on Thursday, November 28th in observance of Thanksgiving. Trade will resume Thursday evening at 5:00 pm CT and close at 1:45 pm CT on Friday, November 29th. Please call 800-545-2580 or email energy@chshedging.com for assistance.
Outlook: The energy complex is holding marginal gains today after facing pressure from a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah yesterday. Finding headlines overnight were reports that President-elect Donald Trump plans to increase tariffs on Mexico and Canada by 25% and China by 10%. The Chinese number remains in question with proposed tariffs as high as 60% touted in previous statements. Whether or not Canadian oil is involved in these tariffs will be significant for many Midwest refiners. The US dollar rallied following the news but has since faded near unchanged this morning. On the OPEC+ front, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia met today to discuss the importance of committing to their voluntary cuts. Other committee members such as Iran have stressed concern that their output cuts have allowed outside producers, such as the US, to increase production in their absence. The group will meet on Sunday to discuss whether or not they leave January 1st as their target to begin increasing production.
Crude
- Israel and Lebanon have agreed to the terms of a ceasefire deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. (AXIOS)
- President-elect Donald Trump announced intentions to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods, along with a 10% increase in tariffs on Chinese imports. (Reuters)
- Russian seaborne crude exports fell by their largest weekly drop since July to two-month lows. (BBG)
- Iran is scheduled to hold nuclear talks with three European powers on November 29th. (Reuters)
- OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on December 1st and the meeting is expected to be held virtually.
- The FOMC minutes are scheduled for release at 1:00pm CT.
- Reuters estimates crude stocks rose 300,000 barrels last week.
- Q3 GDP and October PCE will be reported on Wednesday.
- As of 8:09 am CST: Brent crude oil up $0.57 to $73.58, US dollar index up $0.053 to 106.870 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is up 16.25 to 6023.00.
Diesel
- Reuters estimates diesel stocks rose 800,000 barrels last week.
- Diesel has regained premium to gasoline this week, potentially finding support from heating demand.
- Friday is LTD for Dec HO. Please be out of positions by EOD Wednesday.
Gasoline
- Reuters estimates gasoline stocks rose 300,000 barrels last week.
- Friday is LTD for Dec RBOB. Please be out of positions by EOD Wednesday.
Propane
- Conway futures are trading at .7625 while Belvieu is trading at .8325.
- Conway Swap Oct25-Mar26 strip indicative midpoint ~.7525.
- Conway propane is trading at 44% to WTI.
Natural Gas
- Weekend weather runs were unchanged through the two week forecast.
- US demand averaged 112.9 Bcf/d yesterday and is expected to average 126.7 Bcf/d over the next 7 days. Supply averaged 102.7 Bcf/d yesterday.
- Today is LTD for December futures.
Continuous Weekly HO: Look for a close below the 9 DMA (~$2.2471) to help hold bullish sentiment in diesel today. On both the weekly and daily charts, the wedge is going increasingly tight and could allow for a breakout if breached.
