NYMEX markets will halt at 1:30 pm CT on Thursday, November 28th in observance of Thanksgiving. Trade will resume Thursday evening at 5:00 pm CT and close at 1:45 pm CT on Friday, November 29th. Please call 800-545-2580 or email energy@chshedging.com for assistance.
Energies are mixed this morning, but prices remain rangebound due to conflicting fundamentals. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah was officially announced by President Biden yesterday afternoon and takes effect today. The deal involves Israel withdrawing its forces over 60 days, along with Lebanon’s army taking control of the area near its border to ensure that Hezbollah does not rebuild its presence there. The announcement is providing a bearish tone for the market. Bullish factors include OPEC+’s meeting on December 1 where the group is expected to delay their 180K bpd oil production increase. If they prolong the increase, it will be interesting to see if they will revisit the production increase monthly or extend it until the end of the 1st quarter as both paths have been discussed. Sources close to President-elect Donald Trump stated that crude oil would not be exempt from the 25% tariffs that Trump said he would impose on Mexico and Canada. The U.S. has imported around 5.2 million bpd of crude and petroleum products from Canada and Mexico so far this year, with 4 million bpd coming from Canada. (Reuters)
Crude
- According to market sources citing the API, U.S. crude inventory fell by 5.9 million barrels for the week ended November 22.
- U.S. October PCE rose 2.3% year-over-year, in line with expectations.
- U.S. Q3 GDP first revision was announced at 2.8%, in line with forecasts.
- Initial jobless claims of 213,000 for the week ending November 22 was lower than the 215,000 estimate.
- Spot WTI crude futures are 2.5% above the five-year seasonal average.
- WTI crude futures are backwarded $2.26 on a 12-month spread.
- U.S. refinery utilization is 3% above the five-year seasonal average.
- Cushing crude inventory is 24% below the five-year seasonal average and at the bottom of the seasonal range.
- As of 9:05 am CST: Brent crude oil is up $0.24 to $73.05, the US dollar index is down $0.758 to 106.210 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is down 8.00 at 6030.25.
Diesel
- According to market sources citing the API, U.S. diesel inventory rose 2.5 million barrels for the week ended November 22.
- Diesel futures prices are 13 cents below the five-year seasonal average.
- The heat crack spread exceeds the gasoline crack spread by $10 at $24.65.
Gasoline
- According to market sources citing the API, U.S. gasoline inventory rose 1.8 million barrels for the week ended November 22.
- Gasoline futures prices are 2 cents above the five-year seasonal average.
- The gasoline crack spread remains weak at $14.70.
Propane
- Conway is trading at .7700 while Belvieu is trading at .8250.
- Conway Swap Q4-Q1 25/26 strip indicative midpoint ~.7522.
- Conway propane is trading at 45% to WTI.
Natural Gas
- Overnight weather runs came in net bearish, removing almost 5 HDDs from the two-week forecast, equivalent to a 6 Bcf decline in net implied demand.
- The EIA is expected to report a 2 Bcf draw into storage for the week ended November 22, which would be smaller than the 30Bcf historical five-year average for the week, but larger than last year’s 5 Bcf injection.
- If realized, U.S. stocks would fall to 3,967 Bcf, the storage surplus would rise to 267 Bcf compared to the five-year average, and the storage surplus would narrow to 134 compared to 2023. (Platts)
December 2025 Conway Propane: Propane prices for the following December contract traditionally weaken in November and bottom sometime in December. The Dec 25 price is currently 3 cents higher than the five-year seasonal average for this time of year.
