Outlook: Crude and refined products are higher this morning while trade remains thin due to the holidays. Natural gas, which has traded in nearly a 30-cent range all week is down over 20 cents this morning with weather revisions remaining warm. News has been light this week as expected, although the market looks to be drafting some support from the next round of Chinese stimulus which was announced on Tuesday. The World Bank adjusted its Chinese economic growth forecast higher but still expects slowing in 2025. The API stats on Tuesday were friendly to crude and diesel which saw larger than expected draws while gasoline saw an unexpected build. We’ll look to the EIA stats later this morning for additional data points.
Crude
- Chinese officials plan to sell 3 trillion Yuan in a special treasury bond sale in 2025 to support consumption and investment.
- The World Bank raised its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2024 and 2025 to 4.9% and 4.5%, respectively. 2024 was revised higher by 0.1% while 2025 was revised higher by 0.4%.
- Fed Fund futures suggest Fed rate cuts of less than 40 bps in 2025, down from 125 bps after the cut in September.
- Reuters estimates crude stocks fell 2 million barrels last week.
- The API survey showed crude stocks fell 3.2 million barrels last week.
- The EIA will report inventories today at 10:00 am CT.
- As of 8:45 am CST: Brent crude oil up $0.70 to $73.33, US dollar index up $0.066 to 108.103 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract up 21.25 to 6057.00.
Diesel
- Reuters estimates diesel stocks fell 1.1 million barrels last week.
- The API survey showed diesel stocks fell 2.5 million barrels last week.
- China announced its first batch of fuel export quotas for 2025 which came in unchanged from 2024.
Gasoline
- Reuters estimates gasoline stocks fell 1.1 million barrels last week.
- The API survey showed gasoline stocks rose 3.9 million barrels last week.
Propane
- Prompt Conway futures are trading at .7325 while Belvieu is trading at .7650.
- Conway Swap Oct25-Mar26 strip indicative midpoint ~.7450.
- Conway propane is trading at 45% to WTI.
Natural Gas
- Overnight weather runs removed 3 HDDs through the two-week forecast.
- Natural gas futures have traded in nearly a 30 cent daily range every session this week.
- Reuters estimates nat gas stocks fell between 100 and 94 Bcf last week.
Continuous Daily WTI:
